TSN has a piece regarding just what life will be like this summer if and when the CBA deal is ironed out and clubs and players can go on with their lives.
Because once free agency kicks off sometime this summer, it’s going be mass mayhem in the NHL.
Some teams hardly have any players under contract for next season. Others will cut their rosters by buying out big contracts. And some clubs will approach star players to re-structure their contracts in order to create cap room.
Agents, meanwhile, will need to quickly get a feel for the landscape and find a home for their clients before all the cap room is gone around the league.
The Lightning were sitting with a projected payroll somewhere in the 40 million dollar range (without Martin St. Louis signed) for the 2004-05 season. If the payroll was to be 46 million, two factors need to be penciled in with the rumored stipulations of the CBA deal:
1) 24 percent rollback on salaries.
2) 2004-05 contracts wiped out.
This means guys like Nolan Pratt, Dmitri Afanasenkov, Nikita Alexeev, Shane Willis, Martin Cibak and Brian Eklund are now FA’s from one degree to another (depending on stipulations of the new CBA). These are hardly all-star names and only Affy, Pratt and Cibak were contributing to the Lightning roster last year (and for argument sake, Eric Perrin was supposed to compete for Cibak’s job in 2004-05 training camp).
If the Lightning were supposed to have a payroll of just over 42 million for 2004-05 (without St. Louis re-signing), the 24% rollback gets them under the cap at 32.06 Million dollars. That’s not a bad position. axe Khabby’s contract and there is more room to manuever to re-sign St. Louis, Pratt, Andreychuk and others and possibly a netminder.
I’m thinking the picture I am painting leaves out a lot of possiblities – and it does. There is so much unknown on hwo the new CBA will work that it’s impossible to do better speculating.
last updated March 30, 2006 at 7:57 pm
Ax Khabibulen and maybe lose St Louis?
That would give Tampa Bay a huge push from Stanley Cup champ to also ran. Which is probably one of the unspoken objectives of the new CBA. Its not good for hockey revenues for teams in smaller non-traditional markets to be the dominant ones.
Why would they can Habby-booboo? True, if it came down to having to choose between Marty and Nik, I’d say go w/ Marty and hope for a stellar performance from Grahame or whomever. But there’s got to be a way to keep them both, especially with the salary reduction.
Then again, the Bolts won the Cup, and my life is complete… so I really don’t have to worry about hockey ever again.
You *know* I’m joking about that…
Khabibulin will be a UFA is what I didn’t clearly convey and my word choice probably helped along the misperception. If the Lightning were to try to Re-sign Khabibulin they are capable of getting involved in a bidding war.
Re-signing Marty is more of a possibility if they have retained hsi RFA rights under the new CBA and he is not a UFA.
Awful CBA for Tampa Bay. They built the best team in the NHL. Then the NHL comes along and changes the rules of the game to prevent them from having any shot at a dynasty.
Tampa could be the Montreal Expos of the NHL lockout. Everything was going great, but if the lockout breaks it, the fans may leave permanently.
Unlike the Expos – we won a title.
Unlike the Expos, the Lightning have set attendance records in the NHL as a market that no one deems able to support Hockey.
Unlike the Expos, the Lightning don’t have an owner who can’t get a break and can’t figure out how to make things work.
Unlike the Expos… oh, to hell with it, the Expos have NOTHING to do with the Lightning. The CBA is vastly different than anything Baseball has ever incorporated and Baseball’s system killed the Expos just as much as poor ownership and just plain bad luck killed the Expos.
If you think the Lightning’s situation is bad, why not look at other teams right now? I presented some numbers that aren’t even verified and yet this picture is a LOT more rosie than other NHL teams.
The Lightning retains a majority of their team — with perchance Nikolai Khabibulin leaving and perchance Martin St. Louis being graded a UFA. You act like the Lightning’s hands are tied acquiring anyone else to play for the team, and like there can be no future because the new CBA — the current — is going to suck real bad.
Everyone adjusts to life under the cap. It’s happened fine in two leagues and no one turned into the Montreal Expos in either league. Greedy owners dictate relocation under a salary cap much more than losing someone due to caponomics.
A new non-traditional hockey market is lucky to get the best team in the world. So the NHL comes along and changes the rules to break up that team and the system that built that team. If Tampa is merely averaghe after the lockout and loses any chance at being a dynasty, then hockey in Tampa is on very weak footing. That is a real shame. They are the champions right now. It would take a league of idiots to wreck it.
You’re still talking, Greg, like the Lightning didn’t exist for any period of time up until last season. Tampa Bay may be a “New” hockey market but they were truly the first non-traditional market of the expansion era. If there is any fault that should be given to the league, it’s over the fact they expanded to Miami, Anaheim, Atlanta and allowed relocation to sunbelt cities far before the Tampa Bay “experiment” was deemed a success or a failure.
It’s been 13 years since the Lightning took to the ice in Tampa Bay and it’s not like the fans don’t care about hockey now. Tampa just won a Frozen Four bid, it’s got plenty of amatuer hockey up and coming in the region, it boasts a Junior hockey league as well…
If Tampa Bay is merely average after this, as a hockey market, that is better than what we used to be – we were dismal and abysmal and were talked about as the reason why hockey doesnt’ belong in the south. Tampa Bay’s got a storied sports history of suckage and the one thing that doesn’t get much press is Tampa Bay fans storied history of supporting the teams regardless.
I can live with the Lightning as a one time Cup winner — and I look forward to each and every chase for the Cup that comes the Lightning’s way, even if they fail in the attempt. That’s part of being a fan – in any market… perservering through adversity. Talking like Tampa will stop supporting the Lightning if they don’t keep Khabibulin or St. Louis is knocking fans in general as only bandwagon supporters. I doubt you would even suggest fans in other markets would desert their teams if certain stars left via free agency.
The fact is that we — you and I — don’t know exactly how the market will be in the new CBA. For all we know, Khabibulin still wants to play in TB and not chase the money and re-signs for a pittance, and St. Louis’ rights are retained by the Bolts and he re-signs…
We know nothing – to start making doomsday predictions or start planning Stanley Cup Parade routes this early is ridiculous.
I think it is clear that the exact fallout from this lockout and lost season will not be clear for several years. I think that several of the weakest southern non-traditional markets may not be possible to save even with a new CBA. These include Miami, Carolina, Pheonix, Anaheim. In another decade it would not suprise me at all to find many of those franchises are either gone or relocated.
Of the southern non-traditional hockey markets, Tampa Bay had the best chance of being a success (and not just a success a HUGE success). They are the best team in the NHL. They are the Stanley Cup champions. They are poised for a decade or so of dominance atop the NHL where they could win a few more Stanley Cups and go down as a dynasty team. The market would be so strongly established after that happened that there would be no question whatsoever that Tampa is one of hockey’s strongest markets. People would complain about that big market Tampa Bay Lightning dynasty having all the advantages(the same way they incorrectly thought New Jersey or Colorado were big markets and had advantages as a result of it). The Tampa fans deserved a chance to see that. Of course it would be bad for the NHL’s short term revenue. If teams in New York or Los Angeles or Chicago are Stanley Cup champs they make far more money and get far better ratings then if Tampa Bay is the champ. It may be an unintended consequence of stupid management of the league, but Tampa’s chance at a dynasty is gone. The team has already lost one year where they could have been champions. When hockey does come back they will have likely lost some of their star players that made then a great team. The system that allowed them to build such a great team will be gone. It is quite likely there will never be as good a team in Tampa again as there was before the lockout. I find that outrageous. Where is your sense of outrage? The team that lost the most from this lockout will likely be the Tampa Bay Lightning. They have lost the chance to have a shot at being a dominant team. They have lost the chance at being a dynasty. Its gone. It will never come back.
If the team really stumbles out of the gate when hockey does return and is middle of the pack or worse (which is entirely possible) this may kill off the fanbase. That would be tragic. Because of moronic leadership on the NHL Tampa could quickly go from an NHL success story to a team on life support. I don’t understand why this doesn’t have you ranting about it daily. Tampa Bay lost more than any team because of the lockout. Is that fair? What do they get in return? They get to lose some star players and a chance at being a great team. They have to try to rebuild fan loyalty after losing a year (and with a weaker team) when they should be riding high as Stanley Cup champions. Its not fair.
“If the team stumbles out of the gate, that may kill off the fanbase”
You do not know Tampa Bay or what Tampa Bay sports fans have faced by making this judgement. The only people who say things like this are the ones in Canada who have been told hockey in the south is a bad thing and no one shows up.
John, the Lightning finished as the No. 2 team in the league, yet were solidly among the mid-range teams in attendance (12th, I believe). Despite the championship, the team still will have to prove its critics that it has a dedicated and loyal fanbase, regardless of the team’s on-ice performance.
Five or six years ago, the team had the third worst attendance in the league.